000
AXNT20 KNHC 171124
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11W FROM 6N TO 14W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
INLAND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 13N13W. FROM 8N TO 16N
BETWEEN 10W AND 14W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N52W TO 5N53W MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE IN THE
WATER THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 6N20W AND 4N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N30W TO 3N42W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND FROM 5N
TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TO THE EAST OF 10W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
3N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA INTO THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N 
IN THE GULF. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
AND ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 69W AND 27N82W 
22N90W...THAT INCLUDES THE EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES...NOW FROM THE NORTH 
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF 64W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COURTESY 
OF THE HONDURAS-CENTRAL CUBA-32N73W RIDGE. ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO WEST OF 83W...
MOSTLY IN THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH 21N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 13N61W JUST AT 
THE EDGE OF THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH 
OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 56W...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 
67W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES 
THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH IS ALONG 7N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N80W. 
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE 
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 11 FEET TO THE 
FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W...AND THE 20 KNOT WINDS 
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE 
NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 69W AND 27N82W 22N90W...THAT INCLUDES THE 
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD 
LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 25N52W 21N59W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 13N61W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE EAST CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD.
ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N76W. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 
14N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR 
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH 
OF 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W...AND IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 
TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT