000
AXNT20 KNHC 161727
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 5N22W TO 4N40W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM EQ-5N 
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 12W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 45W-54W. 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO 
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
THE CENTRAL GULF AT 25N89W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 15N90W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
OVER THE SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 
81W-86W. SURFACE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE GULF. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W...AND 
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A TROUGH TO EXTEND 
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W TO INCLUDE 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 12N E OF 62W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N E OF 68W. MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A 
RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
IS CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 13N89W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N53W. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 40W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W N 
OF 22N TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. A 1012 MB NON-TROPICAL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N24W MOVING E. IN THE 
TROPICS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD AND THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 
56W-60W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA