000 AXNT20 KNHC 161125 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR SIERRA LEONE NEAR 11N14W TO 9N17W AND 6N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N26W TO 4N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W... ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 40W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. THE EARLIER GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT HAS WEAKENED. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...THROUGH FLORIDA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N94W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FIRST TROUGH FROM 25N TO 28N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF 88W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MAKING THE HEADLINES NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N70W...IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 65W AND 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COURTESY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS-BEYOND WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS RIDGE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 81W...MOSTLY IN THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 16N61W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N62W 19N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 60W AND THE 19N64W 15N62W LINE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3... FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET...ROUGHLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST 65W...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS... BEYOND 32N70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W TO THE NORTH OF 30N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 22N76W BEYOND 32N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60W 23N60W 16N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO A 26N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N58W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE 32N35W 22N55W TROUGH. ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 29N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 24N46W TO 14N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 31N25W...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT