000 AXNT20 KNHC 160621 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N14W TO 8N17W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W TO 5N40W AND 5N49W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 2N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 60-90 NM RADIUS OF 7N18W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 3N TO THE EAST OF 5W...FROM 5N TO 9N TO THE EAST OF 20W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N93W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MAKING THE HEADLINES NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS TOWARD CENTRAL LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N70W... IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 65W AND 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COURTESY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS-BEYOND WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF 81W...MOSTLY IN THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND IN THE NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 16N61W JUST AT THE EDGE OF THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 17N60W 14N60W 11N59W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N77W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO 10N82W BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3... FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET...ROUGHLY TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 83W...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS... BEYOND 32N70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W TO THE NORTH OF 30N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 22N76W BEYOND 32N69W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N60W 23N60W 16N61W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO A 26N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N58W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE 32N36W 20N58W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 24N45W TO 12N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N29W...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT