000 AXNT20 KNHC 151121 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W AND 6N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N28W TO 4N37W AND 4N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN... 4N12W 4N22W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. THE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THIS COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE FEATURE IS THE GEORGIA-INTO- SOUTH CAROLINA SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 26N90W...TO 21N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MAKING THE HEADLINES NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH WEST TEXAS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE AREA OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N72W...IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS COURTESY OF THE GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS-TO-FLORIDA STRAITS RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 13N66W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TO THE WEST OF 80W...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...HAS MOVED INLAND FROM EASTERN HONDURAS ACROSS NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET...ROUGHLY TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 82W...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS... BEYOND 32N72W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N53W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W 28N58W 27N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN GENERAL TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 25N25W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N30W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT