000
AXNT20 KNHC 121736
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 6N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 6N18W TO 6N30W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 16W-20W...FROM 5N-8N 
BETWEEN 26W-35W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 49W-54W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER HOUSTON TEXAS. A 
SMALL COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TOWARDS BROWNSVILLE 
TEXAS. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM BATON ROUGE 
LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AT 27N95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SQUALL 
LINE. FURTHER S ... LIGHTNING IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM MATAMOROS TO TAMPICO. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS  AND RAIN ARE ALONG THE NE GULF N 
OF 28N E OF 92W. 10-15 KT SW RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS INLAND 
OVER TEXAS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FEATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.      

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NE HISPANIOLA N OF 
18N AND E OF 70W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
VENEZUELA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 67W-71W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW 
CARIBBEAN S OF 10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE OVER INLAND E 
NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS 
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA 
NEAR 15N90W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL 
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 
35N75W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W TO 
27N70W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N61W 22N63W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-31N BETWEEN 60W-64W. 
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N70W 21N72W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 70W-72W. A 
DEEP 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 32N30W. 
THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OVER A LARGE AREA N OF 16N 
BETWEEN 15W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST N OF THE 
CENTER FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 30W-32W. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF 
SUBTROPICAL FORMATION WITH NEAR GALE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. 
EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE 
E AT 10-15 KT...AND FOR THE DEEP LOW TO MOVE LITTLE.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA