000 AXNT20 KNHC 111749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NEW GUINEA AT 12N16W CROSSING OVER ATLC WATERS TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N22W ALONG 4N33W 2N45W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SID OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN TEXAS NEAR 33N100W. AS OF 1500 UTC...A SQUALL LINE IS ANALYZED FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA AT 29N91W ALONG 27N92W 26N94W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THIS AXIS WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING IN BOTH DIRECTIONS FROM THE SQUALL AXIS AS WELL AS ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED ALONG THE SE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST ALONG 28N96W 25N98W 19N95W. AREAS ALONG THIS TROUGH ARE MOSTLY DRY. MOST OF THE ERN GULF IS ALSO DRY ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN AND SE CONUS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS S FLORIDA...AS OF 1500 UTC...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE WHICH WILL DRAG THE AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN GULF THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF HISPANIOLA...AND N OF PANAMA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 64W. THIS IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 58W-62W. A SIMILAR PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPACTING THIS AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW AND THESE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO GET HIT BY MOIST CONDITIONS. BARBADOS AND TRINIDAD BOTH REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER .5 INCHES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA...FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF A STRONG SHOWER MOVES OVER ONE OF THE ISLANDS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR CONDITIONS REMAINING OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W CONTINUING TO THE NW BAHAMAS AT 27N79W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS S FLORIDA...AS OF 1500 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 74W. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...UNASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...IS N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 52W-59W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 45N39W. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS SUPPORTING A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 36N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS ALONG 31N25W 26N30W. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS 100 NM SE OF THE AXIS. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON