000 AXNT20 KNHC 111134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 12N17W TO 10N20W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N24W TO 4N30W 3N33W TO 1N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 10W...TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 30W...TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 52W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N55W 10N60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN WEST TEXAS NEAR 32N102W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM ITS BORDER WITH LOUISIANA TO ITS BORDER WITH MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 25N75W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ONLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N86W AND 27N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4... F0R SOUTHEASTERLY 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF 88W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N62W...ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO A 15N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 53W AND 65W... AND EMERGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. COMPARATIVELY DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF 66W. MOISTURE AT MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS TO THE EAST OF THE 66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TRINIDAD FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC WAS 1.02 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY REACHING PUERTO RICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3... FOR EASTERLY 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 65W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N37W AND 19N39W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N26W 28N30W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 100 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N50W TO 20N36W 23N29W 27N21W BEYOND 32N17W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N57W TO 24N72W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ONE AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 32N26W 28N30W SURFACE TROUGH. THE SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS IS RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA. THE THIRD AREA IS RELATED TO THE 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 61W WITH TRADEWIND FLOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT