000 AXNT20 KNHC 082346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N19W TO 04N40W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 21W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 27W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRIMARILY IMPACTING MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF ON THE HEELS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DESERT SW AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS MAXIMIZED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM SW LOUISIANA ALONG THE TEXAS GULF TO 28N100W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM 30N92W TO 26N97W...INCLUDING MUCH OF INLAND SE TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS REMAINED RELAXED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGHING DRAPED ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT. MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 70W IS REMAINING TRANQUIL THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINATE E OF 70W AND IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N63W TO 15N65W TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 67W...INCLUDING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA COAST BETWEEN 62W-74W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 34N73W TO 25N80W. THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N70W THAT IS BECOMING OCCLUDED TO 29N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THIS TRIPLE POINT TO 27N72W TO 30N80W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 75W-80W. CONVECTION NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OCCURRING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND STRETCHES INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AREA FROM 25N-28N REMAINING W OF 79W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE CENTRAL ATLC REMAINING MAINLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 35W-55W...BUT HOWEVER EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING SW ALONG 29N40W TO 25N50W THEN WESTWARD TO 26N60W BECOMING STATIONARY INTO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 45W AND WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT W OF 45W. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT A 300 NM WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO 32N24W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 50W-61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N26W. OF NOTE...A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 07N-21N E OF 42W. MUCH OF THIS AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUSPENDED DUST PARTICLES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN