000 AXNT20 KNHC 081743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W CONTINUING ACROSS ATLC WATERS ALONG 6N18W 4N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N24W ALONG 4N39W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-22W AND WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 39W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S...AND 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 225W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE SE LOUISIANA COAST AS WELL AS OVER S FLORIDA. SOME STRONG ACTIVITY IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND MAY REACH THE COASTLINE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTLINE. IT HAS CURRENTLY STALLED OUT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND PUSH INTO GULF WATERS EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW...AND WILL SWEEP OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE GULF AND IS SUPPORTING MAINLY LIGHT SE-S SURFACE FLOW...EXCEPT FOR SOME VARIABLE WINDS IN THE NE PORTION. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC. LIGHT 5-10 KT E-SE WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND S OF JAMAICA AND HAITI. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH IMPACTS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 18N63W TO VENEZUELA AT 11N67W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ANY OF THESE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 35N SUPPORTING A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARDS THE N FLORIDA COAST ALONG 27N75W 30N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N37W ALONG 25N50W 26N60W BECOMING STATIONARY BACK TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AT 29N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AXIS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE H IS S OF THE FRONT NEAR 24N66W MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N60W TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 50W-61W. MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN ATLC IS HELPING SUPPORT OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 36N21W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN ATLC SUPPORTS A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N25W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON