000 AXNT20 KNHC 080559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO 3N28W 2N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W...JUST OFF THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W 4N20W 3N26W 3N36W 4N46W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N TO THE EAST OF 6W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN MEXICO LEADS TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH THAT IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS AREA INCLUDES SOUTH FLORIDA...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 76W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N77W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS...SOME DISSIPATING WITH TIME...ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 10N68W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...BEYOND 15N60W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS AREA INCLUDES AREAS THAT ARE CLOSE TO GUADELOUPE...THE DOMINICA PASSAGE...AND DOMINICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. A SURFACE CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N60W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA... SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT...TO 14N64W...CURVING TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 12N70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N47W. ONE LARGE-SCALE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THIS 35N47W CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 39W AND 63W. A SECOND AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO ARE ALONG 24N60W-PUERTO RICO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W 28N50W 26N60W 28N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N65W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N69W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N76W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 28N76W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 29N...TO 30N84W IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W...AND FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE WEST OF 62W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 10N68W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...THROUGH 15N60W 18N54W 23N47W 26N29W BEYOND 30N13W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS AREA INCLUDES AREAS THAT ARE CLOSE TO GUADELOUPE...THE DOMINICA PASSAGE...AND DOMINICA. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N78W IN NORTHERN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N23W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N38W...TO 15N53W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ONE AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 32N44W 29N69W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N69W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT