000 AXNT20 KNHC 071146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N19W TO 4N27W 2N37W AND 1N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 3N3W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 24W... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 24W TO THE SOUTH OF 5N24W 7N40W 12N50W 10N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE SPANS MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. SOME OF THAT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W...IS RELATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH 29N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINFALL HAS DISSIPATED IN A CELL FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 91W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 15N75W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE 22N69W 15N75W TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N67W TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS NEAR 22N67W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT 180 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N62W 14N70W 12N76W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THIS AREA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC ARE 0.35 INCHES IN CURACAO...AND 0.23 INCHES IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W...BEYOND 10N85W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY TO THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W 28N54W TO 28N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N59W TO 31N67W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N71W TO 28N77W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THE TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N57W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINFALL HAS DISSIPATED IN A CELL FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N36W 27N47W 22N58W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 300 TO 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT START NEAR 10N63W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...THROUGH 15N57W 20N50W 22N40W 26N29W BEYOND 32N25W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N72W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N17W...TO 22N29W TO 13N50W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. ONE AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING TO 12 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 31N35W 22N58W STATIONARY FRONT. THE SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 29N71W 31N81W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT