000 AXNT20 KNHC 070538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N13W AND 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO 2N32W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 2W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 12W AND 22W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 22W TO THE SOUTH OF 5N22W 7N33W 11N49W 10N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE SPANS MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. SOME OF THAT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W...IS RELATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA/SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH 30N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 06/2015 UTC...FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA BORDER INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N75W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE 23N70W 16N75W TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N67W TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS NEAR 22N67W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT 180 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N62W 14N70W 12N76W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC ARE 0.35 INCHES IN CURACAO...AND 0.23 INCHES IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W TO PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...INTO NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA NEAR 11N86W...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND BEYOND 9N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY TO THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF A COLD FRONT...THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N51W TO 30N52W 28N56W 29N62W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N62W TO 32N70W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N73W TO 29N77W BEYOND 30N80W...ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THE TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...AND FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 27N45W TO 22N57W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WITHIN 300 TO 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT START NEAR 10N63W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA...THROUGH 15N57W 20N50W 22N40W 26N29W BEYOND 32N25W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N72W...ABOUT 130 NM TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N19W...TO 21N30W 17N38W TO 13N52W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT TWO COLD FRONTS. ONE AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING TO 12 FEET IS RELATED TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 27N56W TO 30N63W. THE SECOND AREA OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IS RELATED TO THE 30N73W 29N77W 30N85W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT