000 AXNT20 KNHC 061732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 3N25W 3N37W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N E OF 5W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 27W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WATERS WITH THE AXIS ALONG 90W AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR GALVESTON NW OVER TEXAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 93W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N88W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE E GULF. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 24N87W TO 28N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO N GULF LATE WED AND EXTEND ALONG 26N E OF 87W BY THU EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ENE FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 18N58W. THE UPPER RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO THE TROUGH E OF 68W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 26N71W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 30N61W ALONG 23N73W THEN S ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N56W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N60W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A LEADING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N30W EXTENDING TO 24N45W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 20N53W. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W ALONG 27N47W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF BOTH FRONTS. A LARGE E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 7N42W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 250/275 NM OF LINE FROM 29N32W TO 22N46W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 18N72W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLC LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG 28N LATE MON THEN SHIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TUE INTO WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO 27N80W THU EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW