000 AXNT20 KNHC 061144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N13W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N13W TO 3N20W TO 5N40N TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 21W-29W... AND FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 37W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N71W PRODUCING 5-10 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 20N89W 15N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME ZONAL. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA N OF 5N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W TO 15N68W TO N COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 62W-69W. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO RIDGING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT...THE LOW OVER N COLOMBIA TO DRIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N71W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N41W TO 26N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N36W TO 21N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N23W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE N END OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 33W-52W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA