000 AXNT20 KNHC 051806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N15W AND 4N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N21W TO 5N35W 6N45W AND 6N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 8N13W 6N33W 7N44W 10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 13W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 98W/99W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO BETWEEN 87W AND 104W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF FLORIDA. MUCH OF THIS NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N75W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 87W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS EXISTED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 3 DAYS OR SO HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE TROUGH NOW APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH NOW REACHES JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF A COMPARATIVELY MUCH LARGER AREA OF OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE 25N62W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 30N77W 27N85W 22N97W RIDGE. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES NEAR 15N75W. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WHAT RESEMBLES THE TROUGH THAT COVERED FLORIDA 24 HOURS AGO NOW COVERS THE BAHAMAS...AND WHAT AMOUNTS TO A TROUGH BASE PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 15N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TO 16N67W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/1200 UTC ARE 0.72 FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.53 FOR SAINT THOMAS. RAINSHOWERS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN THE AREA OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS HELPED TO GIVE A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN BARBADOS OF 1.24 INCHES...AND 0.47 INCHES IN TRINIDAD. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W TO 9N79W AND BEYOND 11N85W IN NORTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO...FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W AT 05/0845 UTC. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SHEARED THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WAS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 69W AND 75W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN IN THE SAME AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. NO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PRESENT TIME NOR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 50W. PART OF THIS AREA IS COVERED BY THE INDIVIDUAL TROUGH THAT SPANS THE BAHAMAS...THE SAME TROUGH THAT COVERED FLORIDA 24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N59W. THIS CENTER HAS REMAINED INTACT MORE OR LESS SINCE IT DEVELOPED ONE WEEK AGO IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N76W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N49W AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 30N40W TO 27N46W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N58W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N50W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N63W AND 23N69W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 15N45W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N23W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT TWO AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING TO 12 FEET. ONE AREA HAS TO DO WITH THE 31N39W 27N58W 23N69W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OTHER AREA IS BETWEEN 35W AND 44W...WITH TRADEWIND FLOW...FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 6 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT