000 AXNT20 KNHC 031803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N19W TO 3N30W 2N40W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W... SCATTERED STRONG IN THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 9N13W 9N20W 5N30W 5N40W 8N50W 13N55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 98W/99W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 107W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 21N80W THAT IS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THIS TROUGH WAS MORE OR LESS IN THE SAME LOCATION 24 HOURS AGO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. OTHER AREAS OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE TROUGH HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE MOMENT...SUCH AS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 86W FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 26N75W...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N81W...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W... IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HEATING. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM 21N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N67W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC WAS 1.11 FOR SAINT THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 0.89 INCHES FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 81W. SOME OF THE WIND AND SEAS STILL ARE IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 26N75W...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N81W...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO NORTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 63W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N75W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 23N55W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 31N39W. A DISJOINTED AND SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N43W 27N49W 23N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM 21N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N67W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 32N TO THE EAST OF 23W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 480 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N60W AT THE EDGE OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OCEAN...THROUGH 19N47W 26N28W...BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 40W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N25W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THREE AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 9 FEET. ONE AREA IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF 70W. A SECOND AREA HAS TO DO WITH THE 32N36W 31N39W COLD FRONT. THE THIRD AREA IS TO THE EAST OF 54W...WITH TRADEWIND FLOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT