000 AXNT20 KNHC 031040 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO TO 06N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO 02N31W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 02W-06W...AND FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 13W-25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 33W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EAST- NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NE GULF ALONG 30N90W TO 25N85W. WHILE VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N87W TO 23N83W...INCLUDING THE NEAR COASTAL ZONES IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE W OF 94W...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OBSERVED IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT W OF 90W. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING E OF 70W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER TWO NOTABLE AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST AREA IS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTENSION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 21N BETWEEN 80W-85W. FARTHER EAST...THE OTHER AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 20N61W TO 16N66W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 67W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING FORECAST TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND E OF 72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF AT THE SURFACE WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N77W AND A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED FARTHER EAST NEAR 29N66W. CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED OVER THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 60W. FARTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THAT IS RESULTING IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 30N43W SW TO 22N57W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N40W TO 20N60W. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA REGION WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF 20N BETWEEN 57W-66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N27W. OF NOTE...EXAMINING EARLY MORNING VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT...A LARGE AREA OF DUST IS OBSERVED EXTENDING OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA. THE SUSPENDED DUST IS MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N16W TO 12N33W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ENCOMPASSES A LARGER OVERALL AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-23N E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN