000 AXNT20 KNHC 021806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO 2N30W 2N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N10W 7N30W 10N50W 10N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N92W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N92W...THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 27N91W AND 25N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SPREADING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTH OF 31N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN CUBA FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W IN AND OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA... 02/0900 UTC UNTIL 02/1400 UTC. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING 8 TO FEET IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO PANAMA...TOWARD HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND POSSIBLY A BIT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN CUBA FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W IN AND OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA... 02/0900 UTC UNTIL 02/1400 UTC. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 7N76W BEYOND 7N83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COASTAL COLOMBIA AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SURROUND PANAMA...FROM EARLIER AND NOW ALREADY-DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC WAS 0.96 INCHES FOR MONTEGO BAY...FOR TRINIDAD 0.95 INCHES...AND 0.29 INCHES FOR GUADELOUPE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. SOME OF THE WIND AND SEAS STILL ARE IN THE COASTAL AREAS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N/27N BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG 78W AND 64W. A FEW WEAKENING CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE IN THIS AREA. THIS FEATURE WAS IN THE AREA OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS AND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WHERE RAINFALL WAS NOTICEABLE FOR 3 TO 4 DAYS IN A ROW. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE 32N42W 28N53W 28N63W COLD FRONT/DISSIPATING COLD FRONT APPEARS TO STOP AT AND/OR TO THE NORTH OF 32N ALONG 38W. THE FRONT IS COLD FROM 32N42W TO 28N53W...AND DISSIPATING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 28N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 30N45W 26N50W 24N53W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT NOW IS BEING PUSHED AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 66W. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N33W...TO 20N38W AND 14N46W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N75W BEYOND A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N82W...ALONG THE BORDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N40W 16N45W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 32W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THREE AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 9 FEET. ONE AREA IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF 71W. A SECOND AREA HAS TO DO WITH THE 32N42W 28N63W COLD FRONT. THE THIRD AREA IS TO THE EAST OF 55W...WITH TRADEWIND FLOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT