000
AXNT20 KNHC 302346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N13W TO 
5N15W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 5N15W TO 2N30W TO THE COAST 
OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 8W-11W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 18W-32W...AND FROM 2N-7N 
BETWEEN 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FT MYERS FLORIDA TO W CUBA ALONG 
26N82W 23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE 
GULF OF MEXICO...AND W CUBA S OF 27N E OF 84W. 10-20 KT E-SE 
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
OVER THE SE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS W OF 84W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BIMINI NEAR 26N79W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SE GULF 
PRECIPITATION AND PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT...MORE 
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 5N73W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA ...AND 
COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER 
CENTRAL CUBA. SHOWERS AND RAIN IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W ESPECIALLY OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO 
RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 10-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS S OF 
HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE N OF CUBA...OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
...AND OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TO 
EVOLVE. ALSO EXPECT THE SAME AREAS OF PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST 
FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. 
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 
31N70W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
FRONT. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
28N51W TO 23N52W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
TROUGH. A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
42N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BIMINI IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 
73W-76W. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA