000 AXNT20 KNHC 291725 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC IS SUPPORTING A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. WHILE MOST OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN ATLC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ENTERING THE EXTREME ERN GULF THROUGH THE S-WRN TIP COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW ESE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT... INCREASING TO UP TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS THAT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLIDE WESTWARD ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL GULF. ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL GULF...THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA WITHIN 60-90 NM BETWEEN 76W-81W. THIS ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. OTHERWISE... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE NE...N-CENTRAL...AND S-WRN BASINS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 10-20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N79W TO 23N80W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS S OF 29N W OF 74W. THIS CONVECTION IS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE SE TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THUS AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 40N65W. HOWEVER... A PAIR OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE WITH VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 31N43W TO 25N45W. THE SECOND ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 18N46W TO 13N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA