000 AXNT20 KNHC 291048 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 01N28W TO 01N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 15W-27W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 28W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 84W SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N82W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIFT GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI FLORIDA INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING S OF 26N E OF 83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W. SKIES ARE CLEAR W OF 84W WITH E TO SE WINDS OBSERVED IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOOKING AHEAD...CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLIDE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN CUBA THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF...HOWEVER THE NAM... ECMWF...AND UKMET KEEP A SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE PROGRESSING WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N82W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE LOW TO 14N87W. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 07N62W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N79W TO 20N83W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 74W-83W. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FRESH EASTERLIES AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED QUICK-PASSING LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 22N82W AND IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND OVERCAST CLOUDINESS W OF 62W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF 27N W OF 74W AND THAT POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 30N W OF 70W. OTHERWISE... THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 30N TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH OF THIS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 69W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W AND SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 33N43W TO 22N44W TO 13N49W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOST PREVALENT EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 27W-44W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N35W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 35W TO 12N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN