000 AXNT20 KNHC 272336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 12N15W TO 6N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 3N32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING. THESE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FILTER DOWN TO SURFACE SUPPORTING A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N85W WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...SSE WINDS TO PURELY RETURN FLOW IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS UP TO 25 KT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE MIAMI WEATHER OFFICE INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ENTERING THE FAR SE GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MORE CONVECTION WILL ENTER THROUGH THIS REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE NW BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC TURNING FLOWS AROUND A TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 20N80W TO 13N80W...AS WELL AS A COASTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO WRN PANAMA WITHIN 45-75 NM OFF THE COAST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 74W-82W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND CUBA AND JAMAICA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KTS...FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO SEA LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED WATER SPOUTS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE REGION. SEAS 8-10 FEET IN EAST SWELL ARE FORECAST FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUOUS CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS THE CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CUBA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NW BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE WEATHER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO DECREASE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS DUE TO FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES OVER SATURATED TERRAIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THUS...THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE SW ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE NRN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA W OF 65W S OF 28N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS RELATED TO A BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALSO PROVIDING FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT OVER THE CONVECTIVE REGION. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE NW BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N62W TO 22N66W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION IS THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SIMILARLY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 19N39W TO 14N42W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION IS THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N11W EXTENDING SW TO 25N20W DISSIPATING TO 24N28W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA