000 AXNT20 KNHC 271743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 5N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N13W TO 3N26W 2N33W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO 1S40W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N81W TO 23N83W NEAR CUBA. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COVERED BY LINES OF LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR THE SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF 92W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER...ALONG 10N77W 11N80W 12N82W 13N83W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. SIMILAR STRONG PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA DURING THE TIME FROM 27/1115 UTC UNTIL 27/1515 UTC. OTHER CELLS BEGAN DEVELOPING IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL PLAINS FROM 9N TO 11N AS THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA PRECIPITATION STARTED TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT CURRENTLY IS IN THE WATER HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY IN THE SAME GEOGRAPHICAL AREA MORE OR LESS SINCE 27/1115 UTC. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 9 FEET NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 9 FEET ALSO...ROUGHLY FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE MIAHSFAT2 HIGH SEAS FORECAST...AND THE MIAOFFNT3 OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W FROM 15N TO 19N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA FOR THE TIME PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 27/1200 UTC WAS 2.34 INCHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS... AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 84W...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 48W. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS AREA FEEDS INTO THE 32N45W 23N47W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS BETWEEN 70W AND 84W...ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA TO THE BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE LINES 28N60W-20N68W AND 30N74W-28N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA...ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W TO THE SOUTH OF 30N74W 28N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 31N57W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N57W TO 25N64W AND 21N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING PUERTO RICO ALSO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT NORTHEAST- TO-EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WITH THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 19N39W 12N40W INTERRUPTS THE COMPLETELY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE AREA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N47W TO 23N47W WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 32N20W TO 24N30W TO 11N33W WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT