000 AXNT20 KNHC 271041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA BUT DOES NOT ENTER THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N11W ALONG 4N23W TO 2N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 17W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 14W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SSW ACROSS THE E GULF TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF TO 90W AND IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND BY A 1019 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR TAMPA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE N GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF GIVING THE AREA CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO THE N GULF COAST ON SAT THEN SHIFT N OF AREA ON SUN. A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN AND CONTINUE W TO THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO CUTS ACROSS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BETWEEN 45W-80W AND ANCHORED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N77W ALONG 15N81W JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 20N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 10N81W TO OVER CUBA AND HAITI NEAR 21N77W. THIS IS LEAVING THE FAR W AND E CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT W AND THROUGH MON AND BE WELL W OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AND WILL DIMINISH SOME SUN THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM ENE OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE W AND CENTRAL S OF 32N BETWEEN 45W-80W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-80W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 48W-54W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING TO 25N64W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N23W TO 16N35W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N11W EXTENDING W ALONG 28N19W TO 28N27W DISSIPATING TO 28N34W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER S EXTENDING FROM 20N33W TO 14N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 20N29W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 17N38W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO 31N ON SAT THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT E SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH BERMUDA ON MON AND STALL OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ON TUE. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN AND MOVE W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW