000 AXNT20 KNHC 270546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N26W TO 2N32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 19W-31W...AND WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N16W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 1S13W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-3N W OF 38W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SSW ACROSS THE E GULF TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS AND ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND BY A 1019 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N84W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE N GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF GIVING THE AREA CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO THE N GULF COAST BY LATE FRI BEFORE BUILDING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SAT THROUGH TUE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE SAT THROUGH SUN THEN INTO THE SE GULF MON AND INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO CUTS ACROSS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BETWEEN 50W-80W AND ANCHORED OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W ALONG 15N81W OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO NEAR 20N81W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 220 NM OF LINE FROM 11N81W TO OVER CUBA AND HAITI NEAR 21N77W. THIS IS LEAVING THE FAR W AND E CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT DIMINISHING SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH JUST SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N63W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE AREA S OF 30N BETWEEN 50W-80W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-79W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 48W-54W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING ALONG 28N60W TO 25N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 22N64W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W TO 16N37W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N13W EXTENDING W ALONG 19N18W TO 29N33W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER S EXTENDING FROM 21N34W TO 16N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 23N26W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 17N38W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO 30N SAT THEN WILL RETREAT E SUN AND MON IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP S INTO THE W ATLC BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 29N E OF 70W AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY LATE TUE. THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ITS REMNANTS MOVING W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND TROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW