000 AXNT20 KNHC 261032 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N24W 3N30W TO 1N37W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 15W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 16W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA SW ACROSS THE GULF TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS INLAND OVER MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND E TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N84W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE N GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE DOMINATING THE GULF GIVING THE AREA CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS FROM NE TENNESSEE TO SW ALABAMA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM E OF UPPER TROUGH WHICH ARE MOVING TO OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WILL LIFT N TO THE N GULF COAST BY LATE FRI BEFORE BUILDING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SAT THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CUTS ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N78W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMNANTS OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE NOW ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W TO 15N75W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING ALL OVER HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF E CUBA. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL TRACK WNW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE FRI AND TO INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING TO 28N60W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N65W THEN BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N71W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE W OF THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IS GIVING THE W ATLC CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N50W FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W TO 19N42W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N43W TO 18N39W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 30W-39W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 65W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND IS ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC SHIFTS NE TOWARD BERMUDA. TRAILING RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N WILL LIFT N TO 30N BY LATE SAT AS A TROUGH MOVES BACK W ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS MON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN RETREAT E SUN AND MON IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP S INTO THE W ATLC BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW