000 AXNT20 KNHC 250005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N19W TO 00N34W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 08W AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE CAROLINAS TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 20N92W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT W OF THE TROUGH IN STRONG NW FLOW. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED AS THE THE HIGH SHIFTS E OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH S-SE WINDS W OF 90W BY THU MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... W-SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REGION BETWEEN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N68W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH NW HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA TO 17N80W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 19N74W TO A LOW IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE MOST INTENSE TSTM ACTIVITY S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. MODERATE E-SE TRADES PREVAIL IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N64W TO HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 19N TO 28N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N73W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. FARTHER EAST... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N33W. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N44W IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 34N47W TO 30N48W TO 26N46W TO 20N48W. THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 39W AND 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL