000 AXNT20 KNHC 240536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N13W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF IS MOVING FURTHER INTO THE W ATLC STILL SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS AT 24/0300 UTC FROM THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER N CUBA NEAR SAN CRISTOBAL ALONG 22N88W TO 23N92W. ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE A DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE GULF...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM S OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N95W. SOME SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE SE GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF AREA LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND MOVE E TO NEAR TAMPA BAY WED WITH A STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND THROUGH FRI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF TUE NIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 19N71W 15N74W TO 12N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ANCHORED OVER SE VENEZUELA. THE CONVERGENCE OF UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER W CUBA N OF 21N BETWEEN 81W-86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W REACHING A POSITION FROM HAITI TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE WED. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL W OF TROUGH WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING FURTHER OVER THE W ATLC STILL SUPPORTING THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 24/0300 UTC NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING ALONG 27N70W THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 70W THUS ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N65W ALONG 23N67W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N71W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 21N-25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMINDER OF THE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N60W FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 33N47W TO 24N43W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N45W ALONG 29N46W TO 25N44W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 42W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 60W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM E OF BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA TUE EVENING. THE DISSIPATING FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WILL EXTEND FROM 32N70W TO E CUBA TUE EVENING. BOTH FRONTS WILL MERGE WED EVENING EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO N OF PUERTO RICO WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY STRETCHING TO HISPANIOLA. THE S PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E FROM FLORIDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WED AND THU THEN TO THE FAR NE PORTION FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW