000 AXNT20 KNHC 232333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON APR 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 5N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W...THEN WSW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4S-3N BETWEEN 24W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 27W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY WESTERLY TO SW FLOW ALOFT IS OBSERVED THIS EVENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ALMOST CLEAR SKIES ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W TO NEAR 24N93W. THIS FRONT IS MOVING AT ABOUT 20 KTS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE ARE ALSO OBSERVED IN THIS REGION ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THIS REGION S OF 12N W OF 76W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE N CENTRAL BASIN ACROSS HAITI ALONG 18N73W TO NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W. DESPITE THE EXTENSION OF THE FRONT AXIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOCUSED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND SRN COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI N OF 16N BETWEEN 72W-75W. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED W OF THE FRONT...WHILE SSE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED E OF THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD IF AT ALL THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N70W AND EXTENDS S-SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AXIS. TO THE E OF THIS FRONT...A SECOND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 28N67W ALONG 22N68W INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W. DESPITE THE FRONT BEING LABELED AS DISSIPATING AND ITS CURRENT POSITION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 32N63W TO 25N67W TO 20N72W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEST ASSOCIATED TO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A WEAK ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N43W TO 20N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. OTHERWISE...A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN ATLC E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA