000 AXNT20 KNHC 221108 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W TO 2N20W 2N28W AND 1N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 13W AND 25W... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 36W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 36W AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W... AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 89W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STARTS WITH A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N85W...ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N85W AND THE EAST CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 19N91W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG 27N83W TO WESTERN CUBA TO 19N87W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N90W AND 24N94W. A TOTALLY SEPARATE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N90W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA... THE BAHAMAS...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 20N81W TO 22N78W TO 24N76W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N76W 28N74W 32N71W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND/OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT WILL BE RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE 20 TO 30 WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET...RELATIVE TO THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 8 FEET WITH THE COLD FRONT. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N52W TO 19N60W AND 18N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC WAS 0.95 INCHES. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH...PART OF THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W...RELATED TO A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N46W 27N48W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 30N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N43W TO 24N47W AND 20N52W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N52W TO 19N60W AND 18N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...AND FROM 25N TO 26N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 22/0000 UTC WAS 0.95 INCHES. PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE ENTIRE 32N42W 18N65W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N59W...TO BERMUDA...32N72W AND 33N78W. BROAD AND WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW REMAINS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N28W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1028 MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH 32N29W TO 25N34W 17N38W AND 8N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT