000 AXNT20 KNHC 200554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 5N13W 3N16W TO 1N20W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/ MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM INLAND OVER SW AFRICA TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 13W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-21W. SCATTERED/MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 2N BETWEEN 28W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NE GULF AT 20/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR OCALA INTO THE GULF AGAIN NEAR SARASOTA TO 27N83W. THIS FRONT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 20/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W TO 24N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND THE NE YUCATAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE GULF BASIN TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE N GULF AHEAD OF A LOW AND TRAILING FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO S LOUISIANA BY EARLY SAT WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING TO TAMPICO MEXICO AND REACH FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN BY EARLY SUN. THE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE FRONT SE OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N88W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 17N E OF 68W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E AND UPPER FLOW FROM THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS OVER THE BASIN THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS BY LATE MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 30N77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR MELBOURNE. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N72W. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT STILL COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 40W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N47W ALONG 26N49W TO 20N54W THE BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 17N58W INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN ACROSS MARTINIQUE TO 12N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 18N BETWEEN 50W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES BEING ENHANCED BY THE BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST SW OF THE AZORES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE SUN THE WILL EXTEND FROM 31N67W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE MON AND FROM 31N62W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW