000
AXNT20 KNHC 150000
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 
3N13W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO THE COAST 
OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OVER LIBERIA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 7W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3S BETWEEN 31W-37W...AND ALONG THE COAST 
OF BRAZIL FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 45W-50W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC PRODUCING 15-25 KT 
SE RETURN FLOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS ARE 
NOTED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM 
THE W ATLANTIC IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING 
W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXITING THE E GULF E OF 85W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 
95W MOVING E. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT 
...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA 
TO MOVE OVER THE E GULF...WHILE SURFACE RETURN FLOW PRODUCES 
RAIN AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
NEAR 20N61W TO S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 18N66W 17N71W. RAIN AND 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AS CONFIRMED BY PUERTO 
RICO RADAR. SIMILAR RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA... 
CENTRAL CUBA...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...AND N VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND W HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND S 
MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. A RATHER LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. SOUTH AMERICA N OF 
THE EQUATOR DOES HAVE EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT...MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE 
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 
32N76W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N52W TO 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. RAIN AND 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1031 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE THE AZORES NEAR 39N29W. FURTHER 
S... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE CAPE 
VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 21W-24W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 50W-70W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE E AT 10-15 KT WITH 
CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA