000 AXNT20 KNHC 141110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N07W TO 02N12W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N12W TO 03N25W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W THEN TO 01S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 26W-30W... AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 40W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OVERALL SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS FILTER DOWN TO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED W OF 90W IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO FUEL A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE ASSOCIATED ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...WITH SE WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THIS IS RESULTING IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-75W. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST- NORTHEAST TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER NE FLOW EXPECTED TO BLEED THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS E OF 80W OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 35N65W TO 27N72W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W TO 23N60W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 360 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD S-SE AS A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N77W IS FORECAST TO SETTLE IN AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 71W-78W...AND FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 78W-81W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE INFLUENCE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN