000 AXNT20 KNHC 121744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU APR 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N9W ALONG 4N14W TO 2N23W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES BRIEFLY S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-34W THEN ALONG 2N39W INTO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 50W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 14W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND INLAND OVER SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-26W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 1N30W TO 3N46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO MEXICO WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E GULF INTO THE W ATLC. THE E GULF UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 12/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF PALM BEACH INTO THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS TO 28N88W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. THIS IS RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW GULF AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEDGE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N W OF 92W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE N GULF IN WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER KENTUCKY LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN N OF AREA PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF TODAY AND FRI AND SPREADING E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF AREA SAT THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC DIPS S OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE E COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N48W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA AND INTO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON HEATING COUPLED WITH THE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CAN PRODUCE SOME OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF CUBA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND JAMAICA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRI. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA LATE FRI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W TO OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 12/1500 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N66W CONTINUING ALONG 26N74W WHERE IT TURNS W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST S OF PALM BEACH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT W OF 76W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING NW OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER KENTUCKY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS EXTENDING FROM 27N68W TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CONTINUING N WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N65W TO BEYOND 32N61W. ALTHOUGH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SAME AREA N OF 10N W OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH ABOUT 450 NM WSW OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY FRI THEN SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVERT THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OFF THE CAROLINAS SAT REACHING NEAR 31N70W LATE SUN THEN MEANDER ALONG 31N WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E AND W ALONG 31N ON MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW