000 AXNT20 KNHC 101737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 4N18W TO 2N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS THEN CONTINUES FROM 2N23W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST BRAZILIAN COAST NEAR 5S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM SE AND 180 NM NW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LIES ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 4S BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF ARE CARRYING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF PRIMARILY N OF 25N. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA AMPLIFIES. 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR HOUSTON...TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FOUND AT THE SURFACE ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE HIGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LIES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FROM 26N94W TO 20N92W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET LIES ALONG 20N OVER EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS N OF 17N TURN SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF 17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LIES N OF 16N E OF 80W. THIS AREA COVERS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA AND IS COINCIDENT WITH THE TAIL OF THE UPPER JET. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS LIMITING PRECIPITATION TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES FROM THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA TO THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO 22N66W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS FOUND EAST OF THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS FOUND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEFORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 21N62W AS WELL AS A STATIONARY FRONT WHOSE SOUTHERN END LIES NEAR 31N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LIES N OF 30N NEAR EACH OF THESE STATIONARY FRONTS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA TO 22N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CAN BE FOUND NEAR THIS TROUGH FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W AS WELL AS OVER PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ENERGY MOVES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM NORTH AMERICA AND RIDGING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE TWO STATIONARY FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE AND A NEW COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE BAHAMAS THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR EASTERN HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER LOW NEAR 25N25W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS LIE PRIMARILY WITHIN 300 NM OF THIS LOW. THE 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CURRENTLY LIES NEAR 37N38W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH OF 32N ALONG 39W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT A FEW DEGREES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO THE AREA DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER