000 AXNT20 KNHC 100528 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREA OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 3N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N19W...TO 1N26W 1N33W...AND 1N40W. THE ITCZ CROSSES THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W...AND IT ENDS IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 14W AND 30W... AND TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS 80W...FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA TO 24N96W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST THAT IS NEAR 20N96W...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SAME 1020 MB HIGH CENTER...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 28N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N91W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 81W AND LAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 17N83W 25N91W TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF 25N EAST WINDS 20 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT4 AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N91W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 81W AND LAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N62W...TO 21N64W 20N70W...AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL CUBA THAT IS NEAR 21N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 18N NEAR JAMAICA TO 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 59W AND 76W. THIS AREA COVERS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE EAST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT3 AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 60W AND 90W...EVENTUALLY CURVING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND EASTWARD TO THE EAST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N66W AND 20N72W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 25N58W AND 22N62W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N62W 21N64W 20N70W...AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL CUBA THAT IS NEAR 21N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND 76W...AND FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N65W...BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT AND A 35N70W 31N76W ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N29W AND 17N33W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N24W TO 28N26W AND 26N30W. THIS LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A PRESSURE OF 1015 MB AND TO MOVE NEAR 24N23W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 24N47W AND 14N55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT