000 AXNT20 KNHC 071135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER LIBERIA NEAR 11N140W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N21W 2N31W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 23W-29W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 2N BETWEEN 30W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DISSIPATES AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W TO 24N87W. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY SW TO W FLOW ALOFT DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF S OF 26N W OF 92W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE N GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUN THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N80W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 22N85W TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN INTO SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA SUN AND ALLOW FRESH NE FLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA SUN NIGHT AND DIMINISHING ON MON. E TRADES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 62W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N68W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE ARE W OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 31N66W ALONG 26N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM SE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 500 NM W OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N27W WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 30N24W WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING ALONG 29N21W TO 25N29W TO 27N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. W ATLC COLD FRONT STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N58W TO 26N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY BEFORE STALLING ALONG 22N E OF 65W SUN INTO MON AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 29N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW