000 AXNT20 KNHC 070542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W 3N46W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 13W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 36W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT DISSIPATES AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 25N85W TO 25N89W. OTHERWISE THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY SW TO W FLOW ALOFT DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF FROM 20N-26N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL SINK S INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING THEN STALL ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF SUN THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 22N W OF 86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING TO THE NE ON SUN. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL SINK S INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ACT TO FRESHEN THE TRADE WINDS E OF THE ISLANDS LATE MON THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N70W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH AND DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 31N70W 28N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH A WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 550 NM WSW OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 37W SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 31N28W AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W 31N22W BECOMING COLD ALONG 27N29W TO 28N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NW COAST OF CUBA EARLY SAT AND STALL FROM 32N57W TO 25N65W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 28N BY LATE SUN. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MON REACHING FROM 32N72W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW