000 AXNT20 KNHC 061720 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 3N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W 2N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS E OF 25W...AND WITHIN 80-160 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR E GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN ATLC TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF ALONG THE TAMPA BAY AREA...SW TO NEAR 26N90W...THEN WNW TO THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR SAN ANTONIO BAY. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BRIEFLY ENTERING THE GULF ALONG CAPE CORAL TO NEAR 25N84W WITH LIMITED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE SURFACE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY KEEPING STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING A TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 78W. TO THE W OF 78W...THE TRADEWIND FLOW SPLITS NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE OF THE LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO...AND SOUTHWESTWARD AGAINST THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA...PUSHING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM BETWEEN 79W-82W. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 31N76W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG CAPE CANAVERAL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N76W INTO FLORIDA ALONG WEST PALM BEACH GENERATING SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 40-70 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTION WILL SOON MOVE OVER THE FAR NW BAHAMAS. ASIDE THE FRONTAL AND SURFACE TROUGH CONVECTION...THE DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO GENERATING SAME ACTIVITY WELL TO THE E OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES N OF 27N W OF 67W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N42W...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE EXTENDING SW ALONG 31N30W TO NEAR 25N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA