000
AXNT20 KNHC 060036
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 2N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N TO 
35W THEN TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING RAPIDLY 
SE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ADVANCING WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG 
THE NORTH GULF COAST STRETCHING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA...AND IS ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING 
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
UPPER LOW OVER ERN TENNESSEE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED W 
OF THE CONVECTION AREA FROM 31N85W TO 27N88W. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND 
NEAR AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS ELSEWHERE. 
THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BASIN LATER 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE FOUND
NEAR THE COAST OF PANAMA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS 
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL 
ELSEWHERE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N39W IN THE CENTRAL 
ATLC TO AROUND 20N56W...WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. ANIMATED SAT 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT LIFTING N WITH THE 
FRONT TENDING TO FLATTEN OUT BETWEEN 42W-56W. SCATTERED LIGHT 
RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 
LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD N OF THE 
BAHAMAS...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS LOCATED ALONG 76W.
THIS WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE 
THAT MOVED FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 30N31W...PROVIDING FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL