000 AXNT20 KNHC 051052 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 9N13W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W ALONG 1N25W 3N39W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 6W-9W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DESPITE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF...AN ACTIVE SQUALL LINE IS STILL IMPACTING THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO CURRENTLY ALONG 26N81W TO 22N83W...AS OF 0900 UTC. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING 90 NM TO THE W. MORE SCATTERED...BUT STILL STRONG...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER SE LOUISIANA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 90W-92W. BOTH THESE AREAS OF STORMS ARE ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN MISSOURI. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SW CONUS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 92W-96W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE STRONG NEAR THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE SE GULF TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS CUBA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD AND THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE W ATLC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN PUSHING SE SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE THAT REACHES WRN CUBA ALONG 23N81W TO 22N83W. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER HONDURAS...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA NEAR A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 8N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA. SOME MODERATE MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE OVER CUBA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD. POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 78W WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 32N68W TO 25N78W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS TO THE SE ALONG 64W. THIS BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N65W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS 80W TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. STRONG SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND TO 35N37W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W ALONG 26N45W 22N54W DISSIPATING TO 19N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 30W SUPPORTS A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N31W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATL ALONG 45N9W CROSSING THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NW AFRICA AND ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 31N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN 28N10W 31N20W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON