000 AXNT20 KNHC 032335 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW AFRICA NEAR 04N07W TO 03N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N19W TO 00N33W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 51W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THE COASTLINE AT EITHER END OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR 06W AND BETWEEN 46W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM A WEAK ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF AND SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND REACH THE SE GULF SAT WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N. SOME COASTAL CONVECTION IS EVIDENT THIS EVENING ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO BUT OTHERWISE VERY FEW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5-6 FT W OF 90W AND 2-4 FT E OF 90W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-4 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF BY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH SAT AND MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...THEN SHIFT E TO NE SAT AND SUN AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES S OF CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AND W OF 74W. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN DIMINISH EARLY WED. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4-6 FT ACROSS THE REGION...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N52W TO 25N60W THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE ALONG 24N-25N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 22N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. WEAK HIGH PRES IS CENTERED SE OF S CAROLINA NEAR 32N77W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S TO ALONG 21N W OF 65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY WED THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF 70W TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU THROUGH FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WED...WHILE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE N OF 28N WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH PAST 29N-30N THU. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL OFF THE COAST OF S CAROLINA FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT... AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL