000
AXNT20 KNHC 021043
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W 
ALONG 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL 
AT 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
3N-5N BETWEEN 9W-16W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 
35W-39W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL 
CONUS N OF 32N CENTERED OVER SRN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO  
PROVIDING SWLY FLOR ALOFT WHICH IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
BASIN. MOST OF THE CONVECTION BURSTS THAT FLARED UP OVERNIGHT 
HAVE NOW DIMINISHED LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 84W-87W. NEW BURSTS HAVE FORMED THOUGH WITH 
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N 
BETWEEN 90W-94W...AND EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST FROM 27N-29N 
BETWEEN 96W-97W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE ERN GULF AROUND 
A 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N85W MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR 
CONDITIONS ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND FLORIDA. EXPECT THE 
SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE ALONG WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS. SOME 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE SRN HALF SUPPORTING 
SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. THESE STRONGER WINDS AROUND COLOMBIA ARE PRODUCING 
SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SINKING S OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 66W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 
COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N62W TO 26N70W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N60W TO 23N68W. 
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF THE TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE 
AREA OF GREATEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 55W-61W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N BETWEEN 
59W-67W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER E ALONG 
27N52W TO 22N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE 
THE AXIS AND WITHIN 200 NM TO THE N. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS 
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 
29N40W...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW OVER SRN PORTUGAL ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 22N43W. 
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE 
CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N11W TO 28N21W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE NEAR THE AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON