000 AXNT20 KNHC 012342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR ALONG 10N14W TO 4N10W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W 3N33W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 1N14W TO 3N18W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 32W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... LARGE UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER E KANSAS DOMINATING THE E HALF OF THE CONUS N OF 30N. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI COVERING THE NW GULF AND DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS N MEXICO TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N TO THE TEXAS BORDER W OF 96W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF AT 01/2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N93W TO 22N88W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N89W TO INLAND OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 19N90W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 86W-92W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH AT 01/2100 UTC NEAR 27N86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE E GULF THROUGH MON SHIFTING E INTO THE W ATLC TUE AND WED THEN SE ON THU AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 70W CONTINUING N OVER THE W ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-79W. THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA AND PORTIONS OF HAITI THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING S TO 27N W OF 68W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N67W SW ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR 23N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 31W-50W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT NEAR 31N42W ALONG 30N50W TO 32N55W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM 24N52W TO 19N56W. A THIRD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 24N E OF 26W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N20W 19N19W TO 24N28W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE MOVING THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY WED BEFORE STALLING ON THU AND FRI. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT E INTO THE W ATLC TUE AND WED THEN SE ON THU AND FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW