000 AXNT20 KNHC 011108 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FORM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N17W TO 2N24W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 3N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND WITHIN 190 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF IS NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DEBRIS BLOW-OFF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY OVER ERN MEXICO IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE WSW GULF WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT OVER THE COAST OF TAMPICO AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N W OF 91W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE ERN GULF CENTERED NEAR 27N85W...KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER...SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT IS ELSEWHERE W OF 87W. LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION AND KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. TRADE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS OBSERVED EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW BACKING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W... PRODUCING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN ATLC PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE W OF 55W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...NOW EXTENDING INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N45W TO 29N54W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED SE OF THIS DISSIPATING FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N42W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W TO THE FAR W ATLC. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 23N50W TO 18N55W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW WOBBLES AROUND 34N21W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N20W AND EXTENDS WSW ALONG 27N23W TO 25N33W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC BY LATE MONDAY. THEN...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE W ATLC WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA