000
AXNT20 KNHC 291048
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
LIBERIA AT 6N11W TO 3N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N14W TO 
1N20W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S46W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 21W-24W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 32W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
AXIS ALONG 30N. FAIR WEATHER WITH 10-15 KT SE WINDS PREVAILS 
OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S 
TEXAS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 97W-100W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS...N 
MEXICO...AND THE W  AND NE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE SE 
GULF. EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER THE 
GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE N 
GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N90W TO 
15N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1006 
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE LOW OVER VENEZUELA.  
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING RAIN 
AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO... 
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE 
...RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS...AND THE COASTS 
OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. A RATHER LAX SURFACE GRADIENT IS 
PRODUCING 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW 
FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N68W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N41W 
TO 17N53W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N38W TO 20N43W. 
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH.   
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N 
E OF 25W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-65W 
SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 
THE ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N34W AND EXTEND S TO 20N48W 
WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA