000 AXNT20 KNHC 280519 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO 2N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 2S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 17W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4S BETWEEN 38W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND HOWEVER OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 97W-100W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS...N MEXICO...AND THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS...NE MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AS WELL AS OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0300 UTC...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVING S. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA FROM 19N90W TO 15N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NICARAGUA...AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. A RATHER LAX SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER SOUTH AMERICA... AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N55W TO 23N70W AND DISSIPATING TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N54W TO 21N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 51W-55W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N36W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 30N26W TO 27N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N44W AND EXTEND S TO 20N52W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA