000 AXNT20 KNHC 271034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N22W TO 1N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 2S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 18W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4S BETWEEN 30W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-1S BETWEEN 45W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF MISSISSIPPI AT 29N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND HOWEVER OVER S TEXAS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 99W-101W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS...NE MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AS WELL AS OVER THE SE GULF...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 20N74W TO 20N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N90W TO GUATEMALA AT 14N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE WITH 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA... NICARAGUA...AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER SOUTH AMERICA... AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO N HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N61W TO E CUBA AT 20N74W. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER W ALONG 31N65W 28N71W 31N77W. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N41W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N26W TO 25N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC FRONTS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FAR W FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE ORIGINAL W ATLANTIC FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO STEADILY MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA