000
AXNT20 KNHC 261047
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 2N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N22W TO 
S OF THE EQUATOR AT 1S30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3S40W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N 
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 
EQ-5N BETWEEN 12W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
3N-6S BETWEEN 26W-50W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N80W TO 23N84W MOVING E. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR ALONG THE COAST OF W CUBA. A SURFACE 
HIGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. WINDS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF ARE 
FROM THE NW AT 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL 
SYSTEM. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF 
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N88W TO  
GUATEMALA AT 16N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE WITH 45 NM 
OF THE TROUGH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 
64W-68W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA... 
HONDURAS...AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. ELSEWHERE 
...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND 
VENEZUELA. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF 
VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N AND E OF 70W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA... 
AND HONDURAS ...AS WELL AS OVER SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W 
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N TO INCLUDE THE 
N BAHAMAS. A 1021 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
31N52W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N35W TO 26N47W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A PLUME OF 
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED 
FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG 
WAVE TROUGH IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH FRONTS TO 
STEADILY MOVE E. THE W ATLANTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE 
CONVECTION WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT WILL HAVE RAIN AND 
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA